And from now on Israel's response; I'm joined by Robert Amin, he is a former US State Department official. He's now the council on foreign relations. Eh, Robert, thank you very much for coming in. Clearly, today Israel focused on the funeral. But even today is the Cabinet gathering to talk about what the military response should be. What do you think Israel's gonna do in response to this?
從現在開始報道以色列的應對，羅伯特?安民也加入報道，他曾是美國國務院官員，現在就職于外交關系理事會。羅伯特，感謝今天做客。明確地說，以色列今天關注的是葬禮。但內閣會議今天也將討論采取什么樣的軍事應對措施，你怎么看待的呢？你認為以色列準備采取什么樣的應對呢？
Well, Israel is divided among itself about what to do. There seem to be three basic options that they are considering, you know. One is going into the West Bank, trying to uproot Hamas even further than they have already. The second is to going into Gaza, and trying to uproot Hamas there. And the third, obviously, is searching for the perpetrators of the kidnapping. They'll definitely go for the third option. The question is what of the other two, will they choose …
以色列內部就怎么做產生了分歧，他們目前似乎考慮了三個基本的選擇。一個是進入西岸，努力比以往更深入地鏟除哈馬斯；第二個是進入加沙，努力鏟除那里的哈馬斯；第三個顯然是尋找實施綁架的犯罪者。他們當然要選擇第三個辦法，問題是另外兩個呢？
And if they do go into Gaza, what are you talking about? Are we talking about air strikes against the militants or militant positions in Gaza, or would you think it could actually be a significant ground operation for example?
如果他們確實進入加沙，你會怎么看待？我們在談論對加沙的武裝分子或武裝據點進行空襲，你認為這確實會成為意義重大的地面行動嗎？
That's to debate; I mean, well, the real question is what is, what is the objective, what are they going to try to do. Uh, because if they push too hard, and let's say, bring about Hamas' demise, there is even more radical forces in Gaza, who would lead to greater chaos, so is that they wanna do that. They'd had a certain understand with the Hamas, so they are gonna wanna punish Hamas and punish them quite hard; uh, which I think it means it probably weren't going on the ground, although there are people arguing for it. So I think they will seek significant air strikes against the Hamas infrastructure within Gaza for sure.
這個問題有待爭論，我認為真正的問題是打擊目標是什么，他們準備怎么辦。因為如果他們打擊力度太大，比如說殲滅哈馬斯，但是加沙有更多極端力量，那樣會導致更大的亂局。他們和哈馬斯比較了解，所以他們會懲罰哈馬斯，重重的懲罰，我認為這意味不會發生地面行動，盡管有些人要求這樣做。所以我認為他們當然會對哈馬斯的基礎設施進行重大的空襲。
Ok, what of the indications that for Mahmoud Abbas this might mean that he has to split with Hamas if he doesn't want to feel the ferocity of the Israeli fire power against him too by extension?
那么，這就穆罕默德?哈馬斯來說意味著什么呢？如果他不想經受以色列猛烈的炮火打擊，是否會和哈馬斯決裂呢？
Well, I don't think that's where he's heading. I mean right now, the Palestinian security forces have been cooperating with the Israelis on the West Bank trying to find the perpetrators, trying to keep the security of the West Bank. But this has produced a backlash among the Palestinian people. They are not happy. That's not so much as they are so happy about the kidnapping, but they don't like the fact that the Palestinians are cooperating with the Israelis while Palestinians were getting killed by Israelis searching for the perpetrators of this crime. Uh, so, I think at this point, Abbas, Mahmoud Abbas has very difficult choices. To break with the Hamas right now, I think completely, would be unpopular because unity is popular amongst all Palestinians regardless of their political strike. Even though they may side with one side or the other, what they want more than anything is for the Palestinian factions to come together for the West Bank and Gaza to be reunified for Palestine to be one political entity, and not to have this infighting.
我認為他不會這么做，我是說，巴勒斯坦安全部隊一直在西岸和以色列人一道努力尋找犯罪者，努力確保西岸的安全。但這導致巴勒斯坦人民反對，他們很不高興。并不是說他們對綁架感到高興，而是他們不喜歡這樣的事實，即巴勒斯坦和以色列人合作，而巴勒斯坦人卻被尋找犯罪者的以色列人殺害。所以我認為在這一點上，穆罕默德?哈馬斯面臨艱難的選擇。我認為現在和哈馬斯決裂將不得人心，因為不管其政治態度如何，全體巴勒斯坦人都向往團結。盡管他們可能會支持這一方或另一方，但他們更希望看到的是巴勒斯坦各派別走到一起來，重新統一西岸和加沙，將巴勒斯坦成為一個政治體，不再內戰。
OK, Robert. So how does it play out, I mean it's obviously the short-term retaliation and retribution for what happened to these teenagers, but there's bound to be longer-term fallouts from this, isn't it?
好吧，羅伯特，結果會怎樣呢？我是說顯然這是因為這些少年的遭遇導致的短期報復和復仇事件，但肯定會導致長期的不好影響吧？
Absolutely. I think the first casualty of this in a longer term is going to be the national unity government that Mahmoud Abbas is overseeing. That government came together in order to form and hold elections for Palestinian institutions. I think it grew now much further from the elections than that, there were beforehand. And if we don't have elections that means there is no real legitimacy for the leadership, it means that the ongoing political stagnation that's taking place in Palestinian institutions will continue. There is no prospect of a renewed peace process. I think the only way out potentially for Mahmoud Abbas in this is for him not to amuse the Westerners, that he would will return to international fora in which he'll challenge Israel for greater legitimacy and recognition for a Palestinian statehood.
絕對的，我想長期的第一個后果是穆罕默德?哈馬斯目前管理的全國統一政府，政府團結到一起是為了組建和選出巴勒斯坦政府機構。我想自從選舉后政府就越發壯大，這都是預先準備好的。如果不舉行選舉，那么政府的領導就沒有合法性，這意味著目前存在于巴勒斯坦政府機構的政治僵局還會繼續下去，目前開始新的和平進程遙遙無期。我想穆罕默德?哈馬斯目前唯一的出路不是取悅于西方人，而是回到國際論壇上去要求以色列，為巴勒斯坦國家地位獲取更大的合法性和認可。
OK, wish we could there, have a more optimistic, one day I'll give you in there a more optimistic forum in this process 'cause there has not been very many as in recently. Robert Amin, thank you very much.
好吧，希望能有更樂觀的結果，希望將來出現更令人樂觀的論壇來推進這一進程，謝謝你羅伯特?安民。
Thank you.
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